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Cake day: October 4th, 2023

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  • Legal experts say the Constitution is clear that he cannot run, though some supporters, including Rep. Andy Ogles and Steve Bannon, are pushing for a constitutional amendment or a 2028 campaign.

    It’s a non-starter.

    You need at minimum three-quarters of states for an amendment, and that’s if you take the constitutional convention route. Even if you got every Republican-majority state onboard, which I very much doubt – I think that there are a very considerable number of Republican politicians who are glad that Trump has managed to pull in a majority and are happy to maybe use some of his tactics but are also more than happy to see him ride off into the sunset and let them run things – that’s still not going to be enough.

    Also, I don’t know if ratification is just the upper house (almost all states have a bicameral legislature) or both or if it varies by state, but if it’s both, that’s an even higher bar.

    kagis

    Sounds like it’s both.

    https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/amending-the-us-constitution

    Step 3. Ratification by three-fourths of the states. Ratification of the amendment language adopted by Congress is an up-or-down vote in each legislative chamber. A state legislature cannot change the language. If it does, its ratification is invalid. A governor’s signature on the ratification bill or resolution is not necessary.

    So you have to get a majority of legislators in both legislative houses in a three-quarters supermajority of states. That’s a pretty high bar.